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Does CLIMADA consider temporal dependence between rare extreme events in synthetic hazard simulations? #1045
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Activity
As noted in #1041, we cannot help you with the EIOPA CLIMADA app.
I restate what I said there: CLIMADA does NOT model hazards, it is up to the user to decide what dataset to use. If you use a dataset without time dependence, then there is no time dependence. If you use a time-dependent dataset, then there is time dependence.
In reality, extreme flood events (such as 1-in-100 or 1-in-500 year events) are very unlikely to occur in consecutive years.
This is not necessarily true. This depends on the correlations in the climate system relative to the considered hazard.
It is not less likely to get 6 on a dice on a second throw if you rolled a 6 first.
- locked and limited conversation to collaborators
on May 30, 2025
I'm using CLIMADA for probabilistic flood risk assessment with synthetic event sets, and I noticed that multiple events are simulated for each year.
In reality, extreme flood events (such as 1-in-100 or 1-in-500 year events) are very unlikely to occur in consecutive years.
Does CLIMADA model this kind of temporal dependence between events?
Or are the events treated as independent in terms of their occurrence across the years?
I'm especially interested in how this might affect multi-year risk projections or adaptation planning.