feat: test activation-led Pro onboarding for new free users

[richiemcilroy]

New free users currently receive a broad plan comparison on day 9, even when they have already used Cap. This adds a concurrent 50/50 onboarding test with a focused first recording task, a day-3 Pro offer for users with a completed cloud video, and later sharing, AI-benefit or founder-help messages based on progress.

Assignments persist in Loops, purchases and opt-outs exit sales, and existing enrolled/imported contacts retain their current behavior. New-account activation excludes screenshots, incomplete uploads and unverified processing. Follow-ups conservatively suppress sends around existing application-notification signals. Pro links preserve the organization billing destination through login.

The six custom emails are being reviewed in a separate Loops draft. New assignment is disabled unless the explicit experiment flag and future signup date are configured. The new workflow is included in the existing watchdog registry. emails/conversion-experiment.md defines rollout, rollback and the 30-day collected-Pro-purchase metric.

Validation: 81 email/routing/consent/watchdog tests; 10 read-only SQL tests using synthetic CTE rows; scoped TypeScript and Biome checks; generated email catalogue check. Production EXPLAIN uses the owner index and primary-key joins. No schema migration or historical enrollment is needed. External-view evidence is a notification-based page-visit proxy, not proof of playback; no conversion lift is claimed.

Confidence Score: 5/5

The PR appears safe to merge, with experiment enrollment disabled unless explicitly configured and no actionable defects found in the reviewed paths.

Summary

• Uses deterministic user bucketing and preserves assignments across subsequent lifecycle changes.
• Introduces stricter cloud-video activation signals and hourly synchronization for experiment follow-ups.
• Adds workflow provisioning, verification, watchdog coverage, email definitions, and experiment measurement guidance.
• No actionable correctness, security, or repository-rule violations were identified.

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