Research: present-head flag 9 hosts basis head only after source drop (no new kappa)

research/p104-present-head-flag9-audit/CERTIFICATE.json

@@ -0,0 +1,143 @@
+{
+  "schema_version": 1,
+  "claim_id": "p104-present-head-flag9-audit",
+  "pinned_main": "6f100d4bb5083f8c35d96fd95a539811c62f245c",
+  "flag_index": 9,
+  "source": 4,
+  "target": 23,
+  "basis_head": 196,
+  "departure_choice": 1,
+  "arrival_choice": 1,
+  "basis": [
+    196,
+    8,
+    3,
+    4,
+    16,
+    96,
+    256,
+    1,
+    32
+  ],
+  "source_register": "X4",
+  "target_register": "Y23",
+  "source_initial": [
+    196
+  ],
+  "source_final": [
+    1,
+    2,
+    4,
+    8,
+    16,
+    32,
+    64,
+    128,
+    256
+  ],
+  "target_initial": [],
+  "target_final": [
+    467,
+    27,
+    196,
+    12,
+    124,
+    3,
+    7,
+    1
+  ],
+  "source_initial_is_basis_head": true,
+  "target_final_contains_basis_head": true,
+  "source_frame_restored": false,
+  "target_frame_restored": false,
+  "source_first_event": 500,
+  "source_last_event": 4009,
+  "target_first_event": 74,
+  "target_last_event": 3489,
+  "source_event_count": 21,
+  "target_event_count": 13,
+  "joint_source_target_events": 0,
+  "basis_head_drop_event": 500,
+  "basis_head_drop_before": [
+    196
+  ],
+  "basis_head_drop_after": [
+    8,
+    64,
+    132,
+    260
+  ],
+  "basis_head_arrive_event": 3489,
+  "basis_head_arrive_before": [
+    127,
+    192,
+    447
+  ],
+  "basis_head_arrive_after": [
+    1,
+    3,
+    7,
+    12,
+    27,
+    124,
+    196,
+    467
+  ],
+  "hosting_gap_events": 2989,
+  "source_annotations_containing_basis_head": 1,
+  "target_annotations_containing_basis_head": 1,
+  "target_preterminal_annotations_containing_basis_head": 0,
+  "source_head_annotations": [
+    {
+      "event": 500,
+      "opcode": "transport",
+      "role": "before",
+      "frame": [
+        196
+      ]
+    }
+  ],
+  "target_head_annotations": [
+    {
+      "event": 3489,
+      "opcode": "transport",
+      "role": "after",
+      "frame": [
+        1,
+        3,
+        7,
+        12,
+        27,
+        124,
+        196,
+        467
+      ]
+    }
+  ],
+  "target_annotated_vectors": [
+    1,
+    3,
+    7,
+    12,
+    27,
+    124,
+    127,
+    192,
+    196,
+    447,
+    467
+  ],
+  "basis_head_in_any_target_annotation": true,
+  "basis_head_in_source_after_drop": false,
+  "targets_whose_final_contains_basis_head_among_all": 7,
+  "hit_flags_from_census": [
+    0,
+    1,
+    9,
+    43
+  ],
+  "flag_is_present_head_case": true,
+  "obstruction": "published_channel_hosts_basis_head_on_matched_target_only_at_terminal_transport_after_source_drop",
+  "no_new_kappa": true,
+  "selected_kappa": "0.001672660197076918"
+}

research/p104-present-head-flag9-audit/MASTER-HANDOFF.md

@@ -0,0 +1,70 @@
+# Master handoff — `research/p104-present-head-flag9-audit/`
+
+## Candidate
+
+- Branch: `cursor/p104-present-head-flag9-60b9`
+- Content tip: `ae18b8db189f777bef159530d5395ebfe024f7b1` (scientific package commit)
+- Package: `research/p104-present-head-flag9-audit/`
+- Base: `6f100d4bb5083f8c35d96fd95a539811c62f245c`
+- Card: `p104-side-correction` (refined), priority revision 6
+- κ: unchanged `0.001672660197076918`
+
+## Claim
+
+On published matched flag 9 (`X4`→`Y23`, basis head `196`), the channel drops
+the head from the source at event 500 and introduces it on the matched target
+only at the terminal transport after-frame at event 3489 (gap 2989), with zero
+preterminal target hosting, zero joint endpoint events, and unrestored frames —
+so chronological dirty restoration cannot use co-hosted basis-head geometry.
+
+## Closest priors
+
+- #3349 `p104-channel-touch-restoration-audit` — full restoration census; names
+  present-head class `(0,1,9,43)`; leaves coefficient/dirty restoration open.
+- #3392 `p104-absent-head-flag2-audit` — complementary absent-head obstruction
+  on flag 2 (leave alone).
+- #3363/#3365/#3371/#3372 — algebraic coefficient delivery (flag-0 cascade);
+  soft-overlap checked; different obligation.
+- #3242 — chronology receipt for worked pair X0/Y34.
+
+## New checkable fact
+
+Present-head flag 9 has `preterminal_hosting=0`, `drop_event=500`,
+`arrive_event=3489`, `hosting_gap_events=2989`. A maintainer can replay without
+reopening #3349's census or #3392's absent-head path.
+
+## Evidence commands
+
+```sh
+python3.12 -I -B research/p104-present-head-flag9-audit/verify.py
+python3.12 -I -O -Werror -B research/p104-present-head-flag9-audit/verify.py
+python3.12 -I -O -Werror -B research/p104-present-head-flag9-audit/independent.py
+python3.12 -I -O -Werror -B research/p104-present-head-flag9-audit/test_package.py
+python3.12 -B scripts/research_package.py --package research/p104-present-head-flag9-audit
+```
+
+Expected markers:
+
+```text
+PASS_P104_PRESENT_HEAD_FLAG9 flag=9 head=196 preterminal_hosting=0 drop_event=500 arrive_event=3489 no_new_kappa
+PASS_P104_PRESENT_HEAD_FLAG9_INDEPENDENT flag=9 head=196 preterminal_hosting=0 drop_event=500 arrive_event=3489 no_new_kappa
+PASS_P104_PRESENT_HEAD_FLAG9_TESTS groups=6
+PASS_REGISTERED_RESEARCH_PACKAGE research/p104-present-head-flag9-audit outcome=completed
+```
+
+## Soft-overlap risks
+
+- Flag-0 cascade (#3363–#3412) stays clear: this package pins flag 9 / Y23 / X4.
+- Do not extend to flags 0/1/43 in the same PR without a new fact.
+- Do not reopen #3349 restoration census or #3392 flag-2 path.
+- Coefficient delivery is deliberately not claimed (already open elsewhere).
+
+## Open questions
+
+Can a changed schedule co-host 196 on X4 and Y23 long enough to dirty-restore,
+and at what cost?
+
+## Disposition note for master
+
+Worker produces fork branch + package only. Do **not** open a CrocSwap PR from
+this worker. Master decides publish/defer after independent skeptical review.

research/p104-present-head-flag9-audit/NOTICE.md

@@ -0,0 +1,8 @@
+# Notice
+
+This package is a finite annotated-frame audit of one published P104 matched
+flag. It does not modify frozen upstream sources.
+
+Prepared by Wentao Li <wentaol4@illinois.edu> with substantial AI assistance.
+Apache-2.0; predecessor notices and exact source pins are retained in
+`SOURCES.json`.

research/p104-present-head-flag9-audit/PROOF.md

@@ -0,0 +1,57 @@
+# Proof: present-head flag 9 late-only target hosting
+
+## Setup
+
+Pin CrocSwap main `6f100d4bb5083f8c35d96fd95a539811c62f245c`, the #2981
+208-flag matching (`research/p104-joint-unit-flags/CERTIFICATE.json`), and the
+reviewed #1991 channel witness
+(`research/p104-native-channel/inputs/LOWRANK-WITNESS.json`, 4,058 events).
+
+A register annotation is a transport before/after frame or an add frame naming
+that register. The basis head of a matched flag is the first vector of its
+basis. Open #3349 records that the target final contains that head for exactly
+the flag indices `(0, 1, 9, 43)`. This note audits index 9.
+
+## Statement
+
+Let flag 9 have source `X4`, target `Y23`, and basis head `196`. On the published
+word:
+
+1. `X4` begins at `[196]` and first transports at event 500 from `[196]` to
+   `[8, 64, 132, 260]`, dropping the head.
+2. No later `X4` annotation contains `196`.
+3. No `Y23` annotation with event index strictly less than 3489 contains `196`.
+4. Event 3489 is the last `Y23` event. It is a transport whose before-frame
+   excludes `196` and whose after-frame equals the target final and contains
+   `196`.
+5. No event names both `X4` and `Y23`.
+6. Neither endpoint frame returns to its initial frame.
+
+Therefore the published channel hosts the basis head on the matched target only
+at the terminal transport after-frame, 2,989 events after the source drop. It
+never co-hosts that head on a live source frame and the matched target at the
+same chronological cut. Logical dirty restoration of the source singleton line
+into `Y23` along co-hosted basis-head geometry is unavailable on this word.
+
+## Checking method
+
+Two independent scanners read the same pinned inputs. The primary scanner walks
+annotated frames in program order. The second accumulates frozensets per
+register. Both reject duplicate JSON keys, enforce source SHA-256 pins, and
+admit through `need()` under `python -O`. Their receipts are byte-compared to
+the committed certificate.
+
+## Soft overlap
+
+Open #3363/#3365/#3371/#3372 record algebraic coefficient delivery for the
+channel/relay/Gram/tail path and concentrate worked examples on flag 0. Open
+#3392 proves the complementary absent-head obstruction on flag 2. Open #3349
+counts the present-head class but does not pin late-only hosting on flag 9.
+This package does not recompute those coefficient identities or re-audit flag 2.
+
+## Limits
+
+This is a statement about the published annotated frames of one matched flag.
+It does not price a repair, construct a changed schedule, or claim a new κ.
+A schedule that co-hosts `196` on `X4` and `Y23` before the source drop is
+outside this certificate.

research/p104-present-head-flag9-audit/README.md

@@ -0,0 +1,46 @@
+# Present-head flag 9: published channel hosts basis head only after source drop
+
+**Scoped obstruction. No new exponent.**
+
+Open [#3349](https://github.com/CrocSwap/integer-mult-bounds/pull/3349) shows the
+basis head meets the target final on only four of 208 matched flags. Open
+[#3392](https://github.com/CrocSwap/integer-mult-bounds/pull/3392) pins one of
+the other 204 (absent-head flag 2). This package pins one of those four:
+flag 9 (`X4` → `Y23`, basis head `196`).
+
+On the published 4,058-event word, `X4` starts at `[196]` and drops `196` at
+transport event 500. Every annotated `Y23` frame before the terminal transport
+avoids `196`. The head appears on `Y23` only in the after-frame of event 3489 —
+2,989 events after the source drop. No event names both endpoints, and neither
+frame is restored. The published channel therefore cannot chronologically
+dirty-restore that source line into the matched target along co-hosted
+basis-head geometry, even though the target final contains the head.
+
+Selected κ stays 0.001672660197076918. Details and limits are in
+[PROOF.md](PROOF.md).
+
+## Reproduce
+
+```sh
+python3.12 -I -B research/p104-present-head-flag9-audit/verify.py
+python3.12 -I -O -Werror -B research/p104-present-head-flag9-audit/verify.py
+python3.12 -I -O -Werror -B research/p104-present-head-flag9-audit/independent.py
+python3.12 -I -O -Werror -B research/p104-present-head-flag9-audit/test_package.py
+python3.12 -B scripts/research_package.py --package research/p104-present-head-flag9-audit
+```
+
+`verify.py` is read-only. Admission goes through `need()` and still fires under
+`-O`.
+
+## Credit
+
+Credit Nick Petalas / #2981, jwr404 / #3242, #3349 for the 4/208 present-head
+census, and #3392 for the complementary absent-head obstruction. Prepared by
+Wentao Li with substantial AI assistance.
+
+## Open next questions
+
+Can a changed schedule co-host basis head 196 on `X4` and `Y23` long enough to
+dirty-restore the source line, and what does that cost against the channel bill?
+This package only shows the published annotated word introduces that head on the
+matched target after the source has already abandoned it.

research/p104-present-head-flag9-audit/SOURCES.json

@@ -0,0 +1,36 @@
+{
+  "schema_version": 1,
+  "base_commit": "6f100d4bb5083f8c35d96fd95a539811c62f245c",
+  "upstream": "CrocSwap/integer-mult-bounds",
+  "files": [
+    {
+      "path": "research/p104-joint-unit-flags/CERTIFICATE.json",
+      "usage": "input",
+      "git_blob": "0fa7d2d40566e92f3ea1539723abf438ba65adb8",
+      "sha256": "a98126428a8da6eae91c50afcc42e014a284c82b554ef77e5b3a34fc6d228128",
+      "credit": "Nick Petalas, PR #2981"
+    },
+    {
+      "path": "research/p104-native-channel/inputs/LOWRANK-WITNESS.json",
+      "usage": "input",
+      "git_blob": "86beaf424e9f0f800ae3a62797d94ec9386b7706",
+      "sha256": "0f541bef7f19fdeffd67157684e9f03d785f42c89973632f508fc1a0452b580e",
+      "credit": "Reviewed #1991 native channel witness"
+    },
+    {
+      "path": "research/p104-endpoint-geometric-budget/geometry.py",
+      "usage": "input",
+      "git_blob": "f49752bcfc321a6129186d4daa774b2c3fdb84f1",
+      "sha256": "1a2792189beaf15aa8180136ca007cd2301992a62e77ba72edea99b298e4148f",
+      "credit": "X/Y naming lines for the 104 sources and 104 targets"
+    },
+    {
+      "path": "docs/research/agent-task-catalog.json",
+      "usage": "provenance",
+      "git_blob": "67f085acd86acd7d4e03922d9cf4b26bca66fed5",
+      "sha256": "47b42433f5a85809a3aadd29c2c339da2c6ed728e4f7762df6b88bccb7874cf0",
+      "pin": "base_commit:docs/research/agent-task-catalog.json",
+      "credit": "Priority revision 6 task catalogue at the pinned base"
+    }
+  ]
+}