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feat: adopt placement-agnostic knockout credit (HessFest) - #143
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July 20, 2026 20:27
Add knockoutPlacementAgnostic flag (numeric, default 0) to ScoringConfig. When on, a knockout round's points are awarded for every team the entry picked to win a match in that round that actually won a match in that round, regardless of bracket slot — rescuing runs stranded by a wrong group-position pick. Default off reproduces the original slot-based scoring byte-for-byte; the oracle and cross-game parity gates stay green. Shared round-boundary helpers (winnersByStage, stagePoints, KNOCKOUT_BUCKET) reuse stageOf so the engine and analysis script can't drift.
projectedLivePoints now mirrors placement-agnostic official scoring when the flag is on: a round's points project for each distinct team the entry picked to win any match in that round that is currently leading a live match in that round, minus teams already banked via a decided result (no double-pay). Caller passes the official knockout map. Slot-based path and all existing behaviour unchanged when the flag is off. expected-points EV stays slot-based by design (documented): the per-round value is unchanged, and modelling placement upside needs a probability the win model doesn't expose — only affects still-undecided matches.
scripts/adopt-placement-credit.ts: read-only impact report across every surface the tournament-wide flag would touch (HessFest, other KNOCKOUT pools, standalone brackets); --write-json emits the immutable audit record (before/after per HessFest entry); --commit additionally flips the flag and recomputes with snapshots suppressed. Guarded on the final being recorded. Impact verified against production: only HessFest moves (39/43 gain, Joe outright leader) — every KNOCKOUT pool and standalone bracket is byte- identical, since knockout brackets seed from the real qualifiers and have no placement to strand. recomputePool gains a captureSnapshots opt-out so the cutover doesn't surface as a live 'top mover'.
- /pool/[code]/scoring: the pool's scoring statement — what placement-agnostic credit means, why it was adopted, what stays the same (point values from DEFAULT_SCORING), and the full before/after board from the audit record. - ScoringChangeBanner: time-boxed leaderboard notice linking to the statement. - Leaderboard 'Rule change ▲n · +p' chip per row, from LeaderboardRow.cutover. - Leaderboard page enriches HessFest rows with the cutover move and adds a persistent Scoring link. All cutover UI is pool-scoped and window-boxed via lib/pool/cutover.ts; other pools show a plain slot-based scoring note.
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What & why
After deliberation, the commissioner adopted placement-agnostic knockout credit for the HessFest pool. Today, a knockout pick only scores if your team wins the exact bracket slot you seeded it into (
lib/scoring/score.ts), so a team you placed in the wrong group position enters a different R32 slot than reality and its entire real run is stranded — you get no credit for correctly backing a deep run. This PR implements the rule, publishes a before/after, and links a statement explaining it.Follows the analysis from #142. The change is additive and config-gated so the load-bearing oracle-parity invariant is untouched: default off reproduces the original slot-based scoring byte-for-byte; only the HessFest tournament config flips it on.
How it works
lib/scoring/score.ts— new numericknockoutPlacementAgnosticflag (default0) onScoringConfig. When1, a round's points are awarded for every team the entry picked to win a match in that round that actually won a match in that round, regardless of slot. Shared round-boundary helpers (winnersByStage,stagePoints,KNOCKOUT_BUCKET) reusestageOfso the engine and analysis script can't drift.bracketScoreEntriesalready threadsctx.cfg, so FULL_BRACKET and KNOCKOUT pick it up with no change.lib/pool/projected.ts) made placement-agnostic under the flag, excluding teams already banked via a decided result so a round is never double-paid.scripts/adopt-placement-credit.ts) — read-only impact report by default;--write-jsonemits the immutable audit record;--commitflips the flag and recomputes with snapshots suppressed (a rule change isn't a live "top mover") and no push blast. Guarded on the final being recorded./pool/[code]/scoringstatement page (what changed, why, what stays the same with values fromDEFAULT_SCORING, and the full before/after board), a time-boxed leaderboard banner, and per-row "Rule change ▲n · +p" chips. All cutover UI is pool-scoped and window-boxed vialib/pool/cutover.ts.Impact (verified against production, read-only)
Test / verify
npx vitest run— 751 pass. Oracle sweep and cross-game parity stay green (flag off ≡ original); new cases cover the flag on (superset property, stranded run rescued, final unchanged, bronze still unscored, dedup per round).npm run typecheck,npm run lint,npm run buildall clean;/pool/[code]/scoringcompiles.Rollout (deliberate ordering)
The flag lives in the DB but the code that explains it is in this PR. To avoid changing scores with no visible explanation, the sequence is: merge & deploy this PR first, then run
scripts/adopt-placement-credit.ts --commitagainst prod. The flag is off until then, so merging is safe and changes nothing on its own.Note: the final (match 104 = ESP) is already in the answer key, so the before/after isolates purely the rule's effect.