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Sync analysis plan with the current draft and add a supplement - #129

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Summary

  • Syncs docs/analysis_plan.qmd with the current Google Docs draft: title, wording fixes, the model-based evaluation section (covariate list, Gamma GAM equations and mgcv formula) and the Results figure list.
  • Removes the outdated GAM text (the CRPS offset formula and explanation, and the brms sentence) and replaces remaining CRPS references with WIS.
  • Moves all ARIMA comparisons to the supplement; the main text focuses on the head-to-head comparison of the wwinference models with and without wastewater.
  • Adds docs/supplement.qmd with the ARIMA comparison figures (S1, S2) and the epidemic phase definition and figures (S3).

Notes

  • LaTeX typos in the draft's equations are fixed so they render (\vu → \nu, missing closing brackets, "x" → \times). These are still in the Google Doc.
  • Both documents render with Quarto. The only warnings are four citation keys that are not in references.bib (Abunjela, BMChealth, RKIGithub, Wollfram_et_al), which were already placeholders in the draft.
  • Next: update the planned figures and methods for the analyses in Meta issue: minimum next steps to wrap-up #127 (bias and coverage panels, relative WIS by epidemic phase, bootstrapped intervals, wastewater forecast evaluation, epidemic phase in the GAM).

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Kaitlyn Johnson and others added 2 commits October 20, 2026 16:33
Update the title, wording fixes, the model-based evaluation section (new
covariate list, Gamma GAM equations and mgcv formula) and the Results
figure list (WIS instead of CRPS, restructured Figures 3-5) to match the
draft. LaTeX typos from the draft are fixed so the equations render (\vu ->
\nu, missing closing parentheses, x -> \times).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Remove the CRPS offset formula and text and the brms sentence from the
model-based evaluation, and replace remaining CRPS references with WIS.
Move all ARIMA comparisons to the supplement so the main text focuses on
the head-to-head comparison. Add docs/supplement.qmd with the ARIMA
comparison figures and the epidemic phase definition and figures.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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kaitejohnson and others added 3 commits October 20, 2026 17:01
Describe how the epidemic phase is defined for hospital admissions (28-day
change beyond 15% and 5 admissions) and for wastewater (28-day change in
mean log concentration per site and lab, 15%) in a new Methods subsection,
and point the supplement to it instead of repeating the definition.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Add a wastewater concentration forecast evaluation aim, methods section and
figure; frame the model-based evaluation as exploratory and add hospital
epidemic phase interacting with wastewater (plus a less flexible forecast
date smooth sensitivity analysis and a latency x forecast date interaction);
add bootstrapped intervals, significance tests and MCMC convergence
checks to the evaluation. Restructure the figures: a combined schematic
(Fig 1), example forecasts by phase with WIS and wastewater fits (Fig 2),
the head-to-head summary including relative WIS by phase (Fig 3), the
wastewater forecast evaluation (Fig 4) and the exploratory GAM results
(Fig 5). Update the supplement to match.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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codecov Bot commented Oct 20, 2026

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Codecov Report

✅ All modified and coverable lines are covered by tests.
✅ Project coverage is 0.16%. Comparing base (4b00df6) to head (94be4ac).
⚠️ Report is 26 commits behind head on main.

Additional details and impacted files
@@           Coverage Diff            @@
##            main    #129      +/-   ##
========================================
- Coverage   0.18%   0.16%   -0.03%     
========================================
  Files         13      15       +2     
  Lines       1601    1829     +228     
========================================
  Hits           3       3              
- Misses      1598    1826     +228     

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Kaitlyn Johnson and others added 7 commits October 21, 2026 10:30
79770b5 was made from the original version of the plan, so it reverted the
earlier changes. Three-way merge of the original (18fd616), the #127
version (94be4ac) and 79770b5: keeps the edits from 79770b5 (Aims, What we
do here, Data, wastewater data, LOQ censoring, ARIMA and model description)
and restores the epidemic phase, wastewater evaluation, bootstrap and
convergence methods, the updated GAM section and the revised figures.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Show unadjusted and adjusted relative WIS by epidemic phase side by side
(Fig 5A) and explain how they relate; use minimum latency only; move the
relative WIS heatmap to the supplement; centre bias on 0; define wastewater
horizons relative to the forecast date (including nowcasts); add Table 1;
fix headings, the inclusion criterion and the convergence sentence. In the
supplement, add the covariate scatterplots and coverage by plant and by
state, and show the convergence sensitivity analysis including all
forecasts.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
The docx is generated from analysis_plan.qmd; the local copy is kept and
docs/ is already gitignored.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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